Texas Is No Longer a Republican Lock

Texas’s Senate race has moved from a Republican lock to a real test of party strength in a state long built for the GOP.

Quick Take

Recent polling shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton running close in Texas.
Paxton still has the edge of Texas’s long Republican voting history.
Trump’s support and GOP unity help Paxton, but his baggage gives Democrats a clear attack line.
The race now looks competitive enough to draw national money, attention, and turnout fights.

A State That Still Tilts Red

Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994 and has not elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since 1988, which is why Paxton still benefits from a strong partisan base. That history matters because it sets a high bar for any Democrat, even in a cycle where polling looks tighter than usual. The basic math still favors Republicans, even as the race draws more attention than many expected.

Paxton also showed clear strength inside his own party. He beat Senator John Cornyn in the Republican runoff by 64% to 36%, and Trump backed him before and after that win. Senate Republican leaders have now moved behind Paxton too, and CBS Texas reported they are helping raise money for the fall campaign. That kind of party-line consolidation usually helps a nominee enter the general election with less internal damage.

Why Talarico Has a Chance

The case for Talarico starts with the polls. Texas Public Opinion Research found him ahead of Paxton 47% to 44% among likely voters, while the University of Texas poll showed Paxton and Talarico separated by only one point. The current polling picture is close enough that no one can call this safe. It is a race defined by small shifts, weak loyalty, and a lot of voters who are still watching.

Talarico also has signs of momentum that matter in a low-trust political climate. CBS News reported that his campaign raised more than $3 million within 24 hours of Paxton’s runoff win, and CBS Texas said nearly 4,000 people turned out for a Plano event in Paxton’s home county. Those numbers do not guarantee victory, but they show energy, money, and interest. In a state where turnout often decides tight races, that is not trivial.

Paxton’s Strengths Come With Clear Risks

Paxton’s biggest problem is that his own record gives Democrats an easy story to tell. CBS Texas and CBS News have both highlighted his 2021 impeachment by a Republican-majority Texas House and the fraud and corruption allegations that continue to follow him. Talarico has used that record to frame the race as a fight against a “rigged system.” That message may land with some voters who distrust elites, even if they come from different parties.

✅ Verdict: True.

The claim is accurate: NYT/Siena poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied at 47% in Texas Senate race.

Key Evidence: Multiple sources including NYT, USA Today, and Fox News confirm the June 19-27 poll results released June 30 among likely voters.

Bottom Line: The…

— Provenance Fact-Check (@0xProvenance) July 1, 2026

The polling also shows where Paxton is most vulnerable. Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico far ahead among moderates and independents, and it said only 44% of Cornyn runoff voters were ready to back Paxton. That matters because Paxton cannot win with only the hard right. He needs enough crossover support to survive a general election shaped by anger, fatigue, and skepticism about both parties. For now, he has not fully locked that down.

What the Race Means Going Forward

This contest is now bigger than one Senate seat. For Republicans, a Paxton win would protect a seat in a state that still leans red and keep Trump’s influence strong inside the party. For Democrats, a Talarico win would suggest that Texas is more open than old election history says it should be. Either way, the race reflects a wider problem: many voters no longer trust the political class to fix basic problems.

That distrust is why this fight has already taken on a bigger meaning than a normal Senate campaign. Paxton has institutional support, Trump backing, and the weight of Texas history behind him. Talarico has the cleaner public image, the early polling edge in some surveys, and a corruption message aimed at voters tired of the status quo. The result will show whether those frustrations can overcome the state’s built-in Republican tilt.